Depending on which holiday sales forecast ends up being the most accurate, retailers will either be shouting, "It's A Wonderful Life!" or grumbling "Bah, Humbug!" when the season is over and final holiday sales are tallied. Two recently released holiday sales forecasts, one from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and the other appearing in the Kiplinger Letter, paint contrary pictures for the upcoming holiday season.

August is the fifth month in a row in which bookstore sales have trailed last year's figures. August 2004 bookstore sales of $2,079 million were 4.1 percent lower than the $2,167 for August 2003.

In contrast, overall retail sales of $345 billion for August 2004, were 4.5 percent better than the $330 billion reported in August 2003.

Year-to-date bookstore sales, incorporating the negative performance of the past five months, show no gain over the same time period last year.

Bookstore sales remained soft with July revenue off for the fourth month in a row. July 2004 bookstore sales of $1,153 million were 1.9 percent lower than the $1,175 million seen in July 2003.

Bookstore sales continued to disappoint, especially when contrasted with the strong performance of overall retail for the same period.

Overall retail of $347 billion for July 2004 was 7.4 percent better than the $323 billion in July

This week, the American Booksellers Association published the results of the 2004 ABACUS study on BookWeb.org. Accessible to ABA bookstore members only, this year's study, which achieved a participation rate of 11 percent with 181 bookstores submitting financial data, focused on providing participating businesses, and the independent bookselling community at large, with year-to-year trends, based on the results of bookstores participating in both the 2003 and 2004 studies.

Bookstore sales were down in June continuing the slide that began in April. The results were disappointing, particularly when compared with the strong performance of overall retail for the same period.

June 2004 bookstore sales of $1,187 million were 2.9 percent off the $1,222 million realized in June 2003.

By comparison, overall retail sales of $339 billion for June 2004 were 8.3 percent ahead of the $313 billion for June 2003.

Booksellers who participated in this year's 2004 ABACUS study are now receiving their full ABACUS report and personalized store comparison. Repeating the study's first year's success, ABACUS 2004 achieved a participation rate of 11 percent, with 181 bookstores submitting financial data to the study. The result is a detailed analysis that provides key insights into the drivers of store profitability.

Consumers spent more on children's books in 2003 than for each of the previous seven years, according to Ipsos BookTrends(SM), which announced results of 2003's key findings about the children's book industry in June. The report, based on continuous reporting from a panel of 16,000 households, found that consumer spending on books purchased for children under 14 years old increased nearly 11 percent in 2003 over 2002.

Sluggish bookstore sales in May, coming in the wake of flat sales in April, were disappointing -- especially when contrasted with the healthy performance of overall retail for the same period. May 2004 bookstore sales of $1,095 million lagged 4.2 percent behind the $1,143 million of May 2003.

By comparison, overall retail sales of $346 billion for May 2004 was 6.8 percent better than the $324 billion for May of 2003.

2003-2004 RETAIL SALES for BOOKSTORES (unadjusted)

Bookstore sales in April dipped slightly below April 2003 levels, interrupting the mostly upward trend of the last 11 months. April 2004 bookstore sales of $1,015 million were off 0.3 percent from the $1,018 million for April 2003.

As a result, bookstore sales in April failed to keep up with overall retail. Overall retail of $332 billion for April 2004 was 8.9 percent better than the $305 billion for April of the previous year.

According to the Book Industry Study Group's (BISG) recently released Book Industry Trends 2004, annual consumer expenditures for books will reach $44 billion by 2008. Trade, mass market, and professional publishing revenues will increase by roughly 10 percent by 2008, with revenue growth higher for university press and college publishers, but the most significant growth will be in the el-hi and standardized-test segments of the industry, with respective increases of more than 20 and 45 percent.