Modest Holiday Sales Growth Expected as Consumers Look for Convenience and Value

Books and Gift Certificates Are Noted as Favorite Gift Items

Perhaps the most closely watched yearly retail prognostications are the annual fall estimates for holiday retail sales. This year, analysts are factoring in not only a soft economy but also consumer concern over personal debt levels and anxiety regarding job security.

Published reports indicate that many retailers are planning for a 2002 holiday sales growth of two to three percent. A survey from American Express, which was conducted in mid-October and included 800 heads of households, found that consumers were planning to spend $1,073 on gifts in 2002, up $29 from the year before. A holiday survey conducted by the consulting firm Deloitte & Touche also found that shoppers were planning to carefully watch their gift-giving spending, with 64 percent noting that they would spend more or the same this year, and 36 percent saying they were planning on spending less.

However, there were positive indicators for booksellers, as survey results showed a strong interest in books as gifts. The Deloitte & Touche survey showed that books were the fourth most popular gift item, following apparel, gift certificates, and music/DVDs. The AmEx survey highlighted books as big winners in 2002, with 51 percent of consumers indicating that they would be giving books as gifts, up from 44 percent in 2001.

In addition, both surveys confirmed ABA research that underscores the important role gift certificates play in retail success. Over 50 percent of those surveyed by Deloitte & Touche said they would be purchasing gift certificates, and 72 percent in the AmEx survey reported that they would give "gift certificates, cash, or gift cheques."

Given the popularity of gift certificates, booksellers should take the time to check stock and reorder Book Sense gift certificates, said Jill Perlstein, marketing services director for ABA. "With a gift certificate that is recognized in independent stores nationwide, stores with Book Sense have a great opportunity to ensure that customers are provided with a service that they clearly value," she noted.

[To reorder Book Sense gift certificates, call Pete Reynolds at (800) 637-0037, ext. 1292. If you have any questions, contact Perlstein at ext. 1283, or via e-mail at [email protected]. For additional information, click here.]

If pre-holiday surveys are correct, those retailers who deliver strong customer service and convenience will profit in 2002. The Deloitte & Touche survey revealed that "convenience, service, and value drive channels in which consumers choose to shop" and that this emphasis on value can be found in all income groups. Interestingly, Deloitte & Touche found that shoppers weren't always concerned solely about low prices. When asked the most important reason for choosing a shopping destination, 26 percent cited convenience, 21 percent the "best value for the money," and 19 percent the best overall selection.

But if customer service is a touchstone for consumer satisfaction, there were also troubling data in the Deloitte & Touche survey. It revealed that those surveyed reported that satisfaction for Internet shopping is higher than for bricks-and-mortar stores. While 73 percent rated Internet shopping on a scale of one to 10 as eight or better, only 41 percent rated bricks-and-mortar shopping an eight or better. -- Dan Cullen